Accuracy of Machine Learning Models to Predict Mortality in COVID-19 Infection Using the Clinical and Laboratory Data at the Time of Admission

Abstract

Aim This study aimed to develop a predictive model to predict patients' mortality with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from the basic medical data on the first day of admission. Methods The medical data including the demographic, clinical, and laboratory features on the first day of admission of clinically diagnosed COVID-19 patients were documented. The outcome of patients was also recorded as discharge or death. Feature selection models were then implemented and different machine learning models were developed on top of the selected features to predict discharge or death. The trained models were then tested on the test dataset. Results A total of 520 patients were included in the training dataset. The feature selection demonstrated 22 features as the most powerful predictive features. Among different machine learning models, the naive Bayes demonstrated the best performance with an area under the curve of 0.85. The ensemble model of the naive Bayes and neural network combination had slightly better performance with an area under the curve of 0.86. The models had relatively the same performance on the test dataset. Conclusion Developing a predictive machine learning model based on the basic medical features on the first day of admission in COVID-19 infection is feasible with acceptable performance.

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