Model-agnostic explainable artificial intelligence tools for severity prediction and symptom analysis on Indian COVID-19 data

Abstract

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic had a global impact and created an unprecedented emergency in healthcare and other related frontline sectors. Various Artificial-Intelligence-based models were developed to effectively manage medical resources and identify patients at high risk. However, many of these AI models were limited in their practical high-risk applicability due to their "black-box" nature, i.e., lack of interpretability of the model. To tackle this problem, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) was introduced, aiming to explore the "black box" behavior of machine learning models and offer definitive and interpretable evidence. XAI provides interpretable analysis in a human-compliant way, thus boosting our confidence in the successful implementation of AI systems in the wild. Methods: In this regard, this study explores the use of model-agnostic XAI models, such as SHapley Additive exPlanations values (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), for COVID-19 symptom analysis in Indian patients toward a COVID severity prediction task. Various machine learning models such as Decision Tree Classifier, XGBoost Classifier, and Neural Network Classifier are leveraged to develop Machine Learning models. Results and discussion: The proposed XAI tools are found to augment the high performance of AI systems with human interpretable evidence and reasoning, as shown through the interpretation of various explainability plots. Our comparative analysis illustrates the significance of XAI tools and their impact within a healthcare context. The study suggests that SHAP and LIME analysis are promising methods for incorporating explainability in model development and can lead to better and more trustworthy ML models in the future.

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