Performance of multimodal prediction models for intracerebral hemorrhage outcomes using real-world data

Abstract

BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop and validate multimodal models integrating computed tomography (CT) images, text and tabular clinical data to predict poor functional outcomes and in-hospital mortality in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). These models were designed to assist non-specialists in emergency settings with limited access to stroke specialists. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 527 patients with ICH admitted to a Japanese tertiary hospital between April 2019 and February 2022 was conducted. Deep learning techniques were used to extract features from three-dimensional CT images and unstructured data, which were then combined with tabular data to develop an L1-regularized logistic regression model to predict poor functional outcomes (modified Rankin scale score 3-6) and in-hospital mortality. The model's performance was evaluated by assessing discrimination metrics, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) using temporal validation data. RESULTS: The multimodal model utilizing both imaging and text data, such as medical interviews, exhibited the highest performance in predicting poor functional outcomes. In contrast, the model that combined imaging with tabular data, including physiological and laboratory results, demonstrated the best predictive performance for in-hospital mortality. These models exhibited high discriminative performance, with areas under the receiver operating curve (AUROCs) of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79-0.92) and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.84-0.96) for poor functional outcomes and in-hospital mortality, respectively. Calibration was satisfactory for predicting poor functional outcomes, but requires refinement for mortality prediction. The models performed similar to or better than conventional risk scores, and DCA curves supported their clinical utility. CONCLUSION: Multimodal prediction models have the potential to aid non-specialists in making informed decisions regarding ICH cases in emergency departments as part of clinical decision support systems. Enhancing real-world data infrastructure and improving model calibration are essential for successful implementation in clinical practice.

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