XGBoost-based machine learning model combining clinical and ultrasound data for personalized prediction of thyroid nodule malignancy

Abstract

Purpose: Thyroid ultrasound is a primary tool for screening thyroid nodules (TNs), but existing risk stratification systems have limitations. Nowadays, machine learning (ML) offers advanced capabilities to handle high-dimensional data and complex patterns. This study aimed to develop an ML model integrating clinical data and ultrasound features to improve personalized prediction of TN malignancy. Methods: Data from 2,014 patients with TNs (2018.01-2024.01) were retrospectively analyzed, with 1,612 in the training set and 402 in the test set. Features included demographic, ultrasound, and thyroid function indices. Random Forest (RF) and Lasso regression were used for feature selection. Furthermore, six ML models (KNN, Logistic Regression, RF, Classification Tree, SVM, and XGBoost) were developed and validated via 10-fold cross-validation, evaluating performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: 17 variables were influential factors for diagnosing TNs. All six models exhibited satisfactory predictive performance, with their accuracy ranging from 0.761 to 0.851 and AUC from 0.755 to 0.928. Among them, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance, achieving an AUC of 0.928, accuracy of 0.851, sensitivity of 0.933, and specificity of 0.650. Calibration curves showed strong agreement between predicted and observed malignancy probabilities, and DCA indicated net clinical benefit across a wide risk threshold range (0.2-0.9). Additionally, we have developed the model as a web-based calculator to facilitate its practical application. Conclusions: The XGBoost model effectively integrates multi-modal data to predict TN malignancy, offering improved accuracy and clinical utility.

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