Impact of an AI prognostic tool on clinician performance in colorectal liver metastases

Abstract

While thousands of AI prediction models are published annually, few are adopted into routine practice, partly because improved statistical performance does not necessarily translate into meaningful impact on clinical decision-making. We conducted a prospective randomized multi-reader multi-case study to evaluate how a machine learning-based prognostic tool influences clinician performance in colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). In a prospective, randomized multi-reader multi-case trial (NCT07027605; Registration Date: January 1, 2025), 12 surgical oncologists assessed 166 retrospective CRLM cases with and without tool assistance in a crossed design with a 5-week washout. The primary endpoint was the difference in AUC for predicting 3-year mortality. Between January and July 2025, 12 readers completed 3984 assessments. Model assistance significantly improved the AUC for 3-year mortality prediction (mean difference 0.091; 95% CI 0.001-0.181; P = 0.048) and consistently improved accuracy across secondary prognostic endpoints. It also reduced decision time (2.53 vs. 3.04 minutes) and increased reader confidence. Benefits were greatest for junior to mid-level surgical oncologists. This exploratory study demonstrates that a machine learning prognostic tool can significantly improve accuracy, efficiency, and confidence in CRLM evaluation.

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