Protocol for an Integrative Meta‐Analysis of the Application of Machine Learning Algorithms in the Prediction of Chronic Disease Risks and Outcomes

Abstract

Background: Precise risk prediction of chronic diseases is essential for effective preventive care and management. Machine learning (ML) is a promising avenue to enhance chronic disease risk prediction; however, a comprehensive assessment of ML performance across various chronic diseases, populations, and health settings is needed. Methods: This meta-analysis aims to synthesize evidence on the performance of ML techniques for predicting the risks and outcomes of chronic diseases. A literature search was conducted through PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Science Direct, Medline, and Embase. Studies applying ML techniques to predict chronic disease risks or outcomes and reporting performance metrics were included. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. Random-effects meta-analysis, subgroup analyses, and meta-regression were performed to estimate pooled performance and explore heterogeneity. Discussion: This meta-analysis provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of ML techniques in predicting the risks and consequences of chronic diseases. We reported the pooled estimates of performance metrics, such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score, for each chronic disease. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression identified factors that influence the performance of ML models, such as the ML algorithm, sample size, and data type. This meta-analysis synthesized evidence on ML techniques for chronic disease risk prediction, guiding the development of robust and generalizable ML-based tools. By identifying best practices and addressing challenges, this work advances predictive analytics in healthcare, facilitates translation into clinical practice, and ultimately improve patient outcomes. PROSPERO Protocol Registration: CRD42024566680.

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